• 6 January 2024
Eskom releases 2024 load-shedding outlook – and it’s code red
Eskom’s system status outlook for 2024 shows that there will be a significant electricity shortfall for every week of the year. This means people should expect extensive load-shedding.
The report’s 52-week outlook forecasts that electricity demand will be much higher than available generating capacity every week of the year ahead.
Eskom used colour codes ranging from green (no shortage) to red (worst case), indicating the absence or presence of a capacity constraint, as shown below:
- Green– Adequate generation to meet demand and reserves.
- Yellow – Smaller than 1,000 MW, possibly short to meet reserves.
- Orange – 1,001 MW to 2,000 MW, definitely short to meet reserves and possibly demand.
- Red – Over 2,001 MW short to meet demand and reserves.
The outlook between 1 January 2024 and 30 December 2024 shows that the likely risk scenario is red for all 52 weeks. This points to a shortfall of over 2,001 MW every week.
Simply put, Eskom expects severe electricity generation shortages for the whole of 2024. This means South Africans should expect severe load-shedding in 2024.
What is particularly telling is that the same report for 2023 showed that Eskom’s planned risk levels were red for only two weeks.
2023 was the worst year for load-shedding the country has ever experienced, with regular stage 6 power cuts throughout the year.
The outlook for 2024 is much worse, which illustrates why South Africans should not believe political rhetoric about fixing the energy crisis and the end of load-shedding.
The chart below shows Eskom’s system outlook between January 2024 and December 2024.
The second chart provides a comparison of the same report a year earlier. It shows the system outlook between January 2023 and December 2023.
ESKOM 52-week outlook from January 2024 to December 2024
ESKOM 52-week outlook from January 2023 to December 2023 (comparison chart)
