Published on Cape{town}etc August 31, 2022
It looks like we may be in for many a candle-lit dinner over the summer. Whether Eskom sees the best- or worst-case scenarios of power grid availability, the group predicts that loadshedding will remain in the shadows for the next 12 months.
Eskom
officials delivered its anticipated power system performance for the coming 12 months during a recent presentation to Parliament’s Joint Portfolio Committee on Energy and Public Enterprises & Mineral Resources on Wednesday.
So far this year, South Africa has endured 91 days of loadshedding from 1 January to 29 August 2022. Additionally, there have been 18 days of load curtailment – load reduction obtained from customers able to reduce demand on instruction – at Stage One and Two, as well as two days at Stage Three.
Eskom attributed this to increased unplanned breakdowns, generation capacity shortages, limited fuel availability at peaking stations needed to meet electricity demands, substandard coal quality and the need to replenish and conserve depleted emergency resources.
My Broad Band explains that in order to estimate the potential frequency at which loadshedding will be implemented in the near future, Eskom used a base case scenario that assumes a certain amount of its grid will be unavailable due to generation breakdowns, unplanned outages and other losses.
In outlining its future power capacity and maintenance, the power utility assumes it will have 13 000 MW of unavailable capacity throughout the year with 2200 MW of emergency operating reserves within its generating capacity.
According to Eskom’s base case outlook for September 2022 to August 2023:
- Best-case scenario: Unplanned outages can be kept at 13 000 MW with minimal use of gas needed to cover any shortfall. South Africa will only experience Stage One loadshedding if needed, implemented over 24 days.
- Middle-case scenario: Unplanned outages expand to 14 500 MW. South Africa will experience frequent Stage Two loadshedding every month for up to 20 days – a total of 203 days of the year.
- Worst-case scenario: Unplanned outages exceed 16 000 MW. South Africa will have to endure loadshedding at Stage Three – and occasionally Stage Four – for up to 326 days of the year. Billions of rands will also have to be spent to generate power to cover the shortfall.
It should be noted that historically, the base case for outages was 10 000 MW. This has increased to 15 000 MW in recent months because of past performances which would fall between the middle- and worst-case scenarios.
Eskom emphasized that the plan and system as a whole is riddled with uncertainty. In the event of any significant outage slips and industrial action problems, the country could face additional loadshedding stages and severe knock-on effects as previously seen in this year’s protests.
As reported by Business Tech, there is a glimmer of hope that the severity of loadshedding could be alleviated over the next two and a half years. Eskom plans to add new generation capacity through its land leasing initiative with Independent Power Producers as well as other means of power generation.
The land leasing initiative is expected to bring in an additional 13700 MW. Other generation methods that would further bolster capacity include managing demand (1450 MW), new builds at Eskom (2400 MW), and optimising existing plant performance (5600 MW).